The script numbers for Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) Belviq for the last week in February are in. According to industry tracker IMS, the prescriptions for Belviq came in just under 7,000 and were up just over 6% from the previous week. On an adjusted basis (10% adjustment), scripts were just below 7,400 for the week. This is a more modest gain than we would have hoped to see, but it is a gain nonetheless.
After the Arena conference call investors were able to note that the bottles of Belviq shipped between the launch and December 31st were 157,000. Considering that the bottles shipped would include bottles sold as well as inventory, it became prudent to revise the adjustment factor applied to the channel check data. At launch I applied a 30% upward adjustment. After the Q3 conference call I lowered the adjustment to 20%. I now use a 10% adjustment on