Gilead's Quad regimen to be HIV market leader in 2020, with over $3 billion sales, says Decision Resources

The current dominance of Bristol-Myers Squibb/Gilead’s Atripla (efavirenz/emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate) in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug market will be challenged over the next decade by two emerging fixed-dose combination products - Gilead’s Quad regimen of elvitegravir, cobicistat, emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and Gilead/Janssen’s Complera (rilpivirine/emtricitabine/tenofovir).

Quad, the first integrase inhibitor-based fixed-dose combination to enter the HIV drug market, is forecast to become the market leader by 2020 with more than $3 billion in sales in the seven leading markets (the USA, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan), according to a new report from advisory firm Decision Resources.

The findings from DR’s Pharmacor topic titled Human Immunodeficiency Virus reveal that concerns regarding the virological failure rate of rilpivirine (Janssen’s Edurant) will somewhat limit uptake of the rilpivirine/emtricitabine/tenofovir co-formulation, Complera. However, Complera’s improved safety profile over Atripla will drive it to garner more than $2 billion in sales by 2020 and is expected to position Complera as the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen of choice.