Global pharma sales growth for 2009 to stay at 2008 levels, says IMS Health

The global pharmaceutical market is expected to grow 4.5%-5.5% next year, a pace similar to 2008, according to the IMS Global Pharmaceutical and Therapy Forecast from IMS Health. The report predicts global pharmaceutical sales will surpass $820.0 billion in 2009, reflecting sustained double-digit growth in key emerging countries tempered by a slower pace in more established markets. This includes the USA, where growth is expected to be in the 1%-2% range for both years.

"In many respects, 2009 will reflect the new shape of the global pharmaceutical market, the result of market factors that have gained momentum over the past several years," said Murray Aitken, senior vice president, Healthcare Insight, IMS. "Pharmaceutical growth next year will hold steady at 2008 levels. The market will continue to contend with a number of forces - among them, the shift in growth from developed countries to emerging ones, specialist-driven products playing a larger role, blockbuster drugs losing patent protection, and the rising influence of regulators and payers on health care decisions. Layered on top is the uncertainty in the global economic environment and its effect on demand," he added.

In its 2009 forecast, IMS identifies the following key market dynamics: slowing growth in mature markets. This year, the US pharmaceutical market, the world's largest, is forecast to reach $287.0 billion-$297.0 billion, with its advance down from the 2%-3% rate expected earlier this year. Contributing to the slower growth is less-than-expected demand for recently-introduced products, as well as the economic climate, which appears to be having an impact on doctor visits and pharmaceutical sales. In 2009, the expected 1%-2% growth rate in the USA will result in sales of $292.0 billion-$302.0 billion, and reflects the impact of continuing patent expiries, fewer new product launches and a tighter economy.