HIV market to grow 6% pa to 2013, but then slow due to generics

Sales of antiretroviral agents will drive substantial 6% annual growth in the HIV drug market through 2013 but significant generic erosion of  key therapies thereafter will slow this to less than 2% from 2013 to  2018 in the USA, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan,  according to health care advisory firm Decision Resources.

The new Pharmacor report entitled Human Immunodeficiency Virus finds  that continued increase in the uptake of Bristol-Myers Squibb/Gilead's  Atripla (efavirenz, emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil) will drive  the agent to garner the highest sales of any antiretroviral in 2013.  However, from 2013 to 2018, Gilead's Quad - a combination of the Atripla  agents plus elvitegring the highest-selling antiretroviral drug in the  world's major markets, according to the report. Quad will combine  favorable safety and efficacy with the dosing convenience of a single  daily pill regimen, making it an ideal product for treatment-naive  patients.

"The largest commercial opportunities in the HIV market lie in the  development of therapies with enhanced convenience, such as  co-formulations that minimize the number of pills and frequency of  dosing, especially safe and effective therapies that target  treatment-naive patients - the most lucrative segment of the market,"  said Decision Resources analyst Jose Avalos. "In addition, agents with  reduced long-term toxicities can differentiate themselves in this  crowded market," he added.