Pfizer-Wyeth deal brings immediate scale but not sustainable growth; Datamonitor

The Pfizer-Wyeth merger will create a prescription pharmaceutical company of unprecedented industry scale. The combined Pfizer-Wyeth  entity would have recorded total group sales in excess of $70.0 billion  and Rx drug turnover of over $60.0 billion in 2008, notes the market  analysis firm Datamonitor.

Pre-merger, Pfizer faced a significant contraction in sales at a  compound annual growth rate of -3.5% out to 2013, due to a raft of key  patent expiries, most notably that of the statin product Lipitor  (atorvastatin). With global revenues of $12.4 billion, the Lipitor  franchise accounted for over 28% of Pfizer's total prescription  medicine sales in 2008. However, the drug is due to lose US patent  exclusivity in 2011, an event that will trigger a significant decline  in Pfizer's revenues as generic competition enters the market.

However, Lipitor is not the only blockbuster brand that faces a  significant decline in revenues over the period 2008-13. The  hypertension therapy Norvasc (amlodipine) lost patent exclusivity in  2007, as did the Zyrtec (cetirizine) franchise, indicated for allergic  rhinitis. The erectile dysfunction treatment Viagra (sildenafil) is due  to lose patent exclusivity in 2012, while Detrol LA (tolterodine for  overactive bladder) and Camptosar (irinotecan, primarily colon cancer)  are also forecast to act as key sales growth resistors over the term to  2013, again as a result of patent expiration.