Merck sketches $70 billion post-Keytruda runway as 2028 looms

US pharma major Merck & Co (NYSE: MRK) is trying to make its looming Keytruda (pembrolizumab) patent hill look more like a speed bump. Speaking at the annual JPM conference, chief executive Rob Davis said the company now sees more than $70 billion in commercial opportunity from new growth drivers by the mid-2030s: up $20 billion from a year earlier.

Mr Davis said that would be more than double what Keytruda is expected to deliver at peak sales on consensus estimates in 2028. The company is also framing the bridge as relatively sturdy: it expects the 2028 loss of exclusivity to produce a shallow period rather than a sharp drop, with a return to growth within a few years.

Merck said it is running about 80 Phase III studies and expects to have clinically de-risked roughly $35 billion of the $70 billion target by the end of 2026, led by upcoming late-stage readouts. It also pointed to roughly 20 growth drivers in development, while acknowledging that the bulk of the value is concentrated in a smaller set of programs.