Peru pharmaceuticals market growth seen to be slowing

Business Monitor International calculates that pharmaceutical sales in Peru reached 2.58 billion new sol ($880 million) in 2008. This represents impressive growth of 8.5% in local currency terms between 2007 and 2008.

However, BMI's forecast for 2009 is more conservative and it calculates that the drug market will experience growth of 5.4%, reaching a value of 2.72 billion new sol in 2009. By 2013, we forecast the Peruvian pharmaceutical market will be worth 3.51 billion new sol, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.31%. BMI notes that, as a result of the weakening Peruvian new sol, drug market expenditure in US dollars will experience a decline in 2009 - to $870 million - before rising to $930 million in 2010 and $1.30 billion by 2013, equating to a 7.96% CAGR.

In BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the fourth quarter of 2009, Peru remains second-bottom in the Americas matrix, above only Venezuela. A small market size and a deficient intellectual property environment represent some of the major drawbacks to the involvement of foreign companies. Nevertheless, Peru offers considerable longer-term benefits to foreign companies, not least because its population is expected to top 30 million by the end of 2010. The recently-ratified FTA with the USA is viewed as a positive development, with Peruvian businesses gaining access to the largest market in the world and US companies benefiting from improved regulatory conditions.

Communicable disease eradication hit by more TB

In August 2009 it was revealed that the Adventist Development and Relief Agency (ADRA) is working with the Peruvian Association of Persons Affected by Tuberculosis (ASPAT-Peru) and the School of Medicine at San Marcos National University in order to curb the spread of tuberculosis in Peru. The number of cases of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) has increased significantly and is threatening to slow the progress the country has made towards eradicating the communicable disease. The ADRA project began in July 2009 and is designed to increase access to care for those infected with TB through the creation of treatment centres in 19 hospitals throughout the country and 12 health centres in the regions of Lima and Callao.

In the first half of 2009, Peru's National Center for Quality Control - the Centro Nacional de Control de Calidad (CNCC) - received international accreditation for its testing and calibration laboratories. The US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the US Pharmacopeial (USP), a scientific non-profit organization that develops and disseminates standards for the identity, quality, purity and consistency of medicines as well as dietary supplements and food ingredients, assisted the CNCC in achieving the accreditation.

BMI welcomes the development as it believes the accreditation will help ensure the country's citizens have access to quality medicines. Furthermore, BMI believes that this marks a radical shift in the Peruvian pharmaceutical industry, and will allow the country to access international markets through exports.