Falling vaccination rate could make measles widespread in USA

The USA faces a serious risk of measles becoming endemic again, according to a new study modeling the impact of declining childhood vaccination rates, published in JAMA.

Researchers warned that even maintaining current immunization levels could see the return of regular measles outbreaks, reversing a public health achievement dating back to 2000.

The study used computer simulations to forecast the spread of vaccine-preventable diseases. It estimated that at current vaccination rates, measles could become endemic within around 21 years, leading to about 850,000 cases over the next quarter century.