Takeda's leadership as Japan's largest drugmaker set to decline, says DR

Based on full-year 2011 sales, Japan’s Takeda Pharmaceutical (TYO: 4502) maintained its position as the largest Japanese pharmaceutical company, with ethical drug sales of $17.2 billion, with its closest domestic rival, Astellas Pharma (TYO: 4503), garnering $11.7 billion, notes health care advisory firm Decision Resources.

However, that gap is expected to close considerably by 2018 as Takeda’s late-stage pipeline agents - such as the prostate cancer compound orteronel and the diabetes agent fasiglifam - fail to offset the loss in sales following generic competition to its key brands, Actos (pioglitazone) and Blopress (candesartan). As such, the company’s sales will decline to $15.7 billion in 2018 - a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of minus 1.3% between 2011 and 2018.

In contrast, Astellas’ growth will be fueled by the recently launched prostate cancer drug Xtandi (enzalutamide) and the overactive bladder drug Betanis/Myrbetriq (mirabegron). Despite declines in Vesicare (solifenacin succinate) and Lipitor (atorvastatin) due to generic competition, the company’s sales will reach $13.9 billion in 2018 – a CAGR of 2.6% between 2011 and 2018.