Stock Commentary - Europe - week to Nov 3, 2008

10 November 2008

EUROPEAN: bourses reversed their previous week's downturn, witnessing one of the strongest recoveries ever seen in the reporting week to November 3, with those followed seeing sharp double-digit rises, and a 39% leap for FRANKFURT. There, one of the big factors was activity in carmaker Volkswagen, which accounts for about 10% of the Xetra Dax. Of the drug majors, Bayer was up 14.4%, helped by its confirmation of full-year 2008 earnings forecasts, despite third-quarter figures missing analysts' expectations (Marketletter November 3). Stada Arzneimittel, which leapt 29.1%, was the star of the sector, boosted by an upgrade from UBS from neutral to buy, on the view that the firm is largely insulated from a weakening economy, reports the Bloomberg news service. Roche and Novartis undershot on the ZURICH exchange, with respective rises of 8% and 9%. The former benefited from news of US approval for its hepatitis C diagnostic product. Sanofi-Aventis was another underperformer, with a 13.1% upturn compared with the CAC 40's 15% rise. Analysts say the stock is one of the cheapest among European drug majors, because of its poor R&D pipeline, which is not helped by the demise of rimonabant (see also page 28).

LONDON: saw a stellar 13.7% rise from AstraZeneca, after the drug major posted solid quarterly figures and raised its 2008 outlook (page 4). GlaxoSmithKline gained 5.5%, lifted partly by the weakness of sterling against the dollar. Shire, up 15.3%, pleased analysts with its results (page 4) and the fact that it forecast full-year revenue growth of at least 20%. Sinclair Pharma retreated 19.4% after its recent strength and despite news that it had put in place facilities to meet peak funding needs.

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