WHO dilemna over flu pandemic level 6

Margaret Chan, the World Health Organization's Director General, is reported to have held discussions over whether or when to raise the  pandemic influenza alert from the current level 5 to level 6, according  to a report by Bloomberg. However, the fact that the ongoing swine flu  outbreak has been considerably less virulent than might have been  expected for a pandemic has caused a re-think about the alert system.  According to the letter of existing warning procedures, there is little  argument that the conditions exist for a raising to the maximum level,  because the criteria are strictly based on geographic parameters and  whether the disease is transmitted from human to human.

One problem is that some nations have adopted emergency plans based on  the WHO's alerts that would automatically be enacted, such as  quarantine, banning international travel and cancelling major public  events. The Bloomberg report notes that over-reaction as the world  experiences its worst economic downturn since the 1930s is not helpful  and could harm the WHO's standing.

The new H1N1 flu strain has spread to 64 countries and all 50 US states,  however the death toll, at 177 as the Marketletter was going to press,  has so far been far less than that of the H5N1 avian flu, over 432 since  2003, which was previously expected to be the most likely candidate for  a pandemic (Marketletters passim).