10-year prospects for Japan's pharma ind

Yano Research Institute, a leading Japanese market research company based in Tokyo, has estimated how the output (including import) of prescription drugs in Japan will grow from 2004 through 2013 under two scenarios: case one, if health care reform brings about significant damage to the industry; and the case two: if the reform does not have a severe effect on the industry, in its report on "10-year Prospects in the Pharmaceutical Market 2006 Edition."

In case one, where the health care reform including the National Health Insurance drug price reduction and a rise in patients' co-payments will dramatically impact the industry, the output of the prescription drug will manage to reach 6,952.0 billion yen ($59.09 billion), 6,989.0 billion yen and 7,263.0 billion yen in 2005, 2009 and 2013, respectively, based on estimated data for 2003. In this case, "virtually zero growth" can be forecast in this doomsday scenario, the report pointed out.

In case two, where the industry can meet the solid needs and steadily make profit, because the reform will have a gradual impact on the sector, the output of the prescription drug should be able to reach 7,198.0 billion yen, 7,614.0 billion yen and 8,149 billion yen in 2005, 2009 and 2013, respectively.