Russia: A $2.7 Billion Pharma Market In 2001

Pharmaceutical sales in the Russian Federation were valued at $1.6 billion for 1995 at cif/ex-manufacturers' prices. This is more than double the value of the market in 1993, but it represents a decline in US dollar terms of 7.3% over 1994, according to a new report from IMS Pharma Strategy Group, Russia: An Evolution of Increasing Opportunities. This forecasts an average compound annual growth rate of 11.8% in dollar terms during the 1996 to 2001 period, with the market value expected to reach $2.7 billion by 2001. The dramatic fluctuations over the past three years were caused by attempts to address a severe shortage of supply to the market in 1993.

Total Russian Pharma Market 1993-95 ----------------------------------- Year $ Mill % Change 1993 722.2 - 1994 1,738.6 +140.7 1995 1,610.0 -7.4 Source: government statistics ----------------------------------- Growth in the first two years is expected to be slow, with the market set to decline in 1996 by 3.2% for the second consecutive year, says IMS. However, by 1998, there is expected to be a market recovery which will continue throughout the rest of the forecast period.

Although relatively high growth is expected from 1998 to 2001, per capita sales are forecast to have reached $18.2 by 2001, up from $10.8 in 1995 (based on a current population of 150 million). This is very low by European Union standards, where per capita drug consumption averaged around $190 in 1994. Even compared with some of its central European neighbors, per capita sales in Russia are low.