1997: What To Expect In Japan - By P Reed Maurer

Japanese pharmaceutical executives entered 1997, the Year of the Ox,with more than their normal reluctance to forecast future events. Speeches stressed the need for employees to work hard and renew their personal commitment to the company. In Japan these exhortations are taken seriously, but have a hollow ring if the captain of the ship is uncertain of his destination.

Articulating a vision for the future in Japan is typically the responsibility of elite bureaucrats. However, the events of 1996 shattered not only the personal integrity of key Ministry of Health and Welfare officials, but also the MHW's capability to control the process of health care reform. There were so many conflicting proposals on the table for debate it was difficult to define likely outcomes. The air is not yet clear, but we can reasonably predict actions that will impact on the pharmaceutical industry during 1997.

Macroeconomic Factors The Japanese economy has not recovered from the excesses of the late-1980s "bubble." Asset deflation has diminished capital reserves held by banks and hurt everyone associated with real estate. Massive spending on public works has not primed economic growth, and personal spending is restrained by uncertainty.