China: Western Drug Sales "Will Rise 17% A Year"

The Chinese market for western medicines is forecast to grow from avalue of $4.1 billion in 1996 to $9 billion in the year 2001, advancing nearly 17% a year on average, says a new study from IMS Pharma Strategy Group.

By 2001, China's average annual consumption per capita of western drugs will be about $12, and the current massive difference between rural and urban consumption, the latter now being 28 times higher than the former, will decrease as rural areas develop, says the study, entitled China Pharma Strategies: Regional Potential for Western Medicines.

Over 90% of sales of western pharmaceuticals in China are made through hospitals, and in 1996 the leading therapeutic categories were anti-infectives (at 40% of the total), followed by alimentary (13%) and cardiovascular products (10%). By 2001, the study forecasts that the fastest-growing therapeutic categories will be respiratory, cardiovascular and cancer treatments; this will be due to an increase in chronic disease accompanying the aging population and a faster pace of life. Apart from the high but declining share of the market accounted for by anti-infective products, China's pattern of western drug usage by therapeutic class is similar to that found in Taiwan and the other south-east Asian nations, says the study.