Gene Therapy Prospects Strong, Says Tech Catalysts Study

16 July 1995

Gene therapy is gaining increasing recognition as having the prospect of curing or reducing symptoms in the most intractable inherited or acquired diseases, and annual global revenues are estimated at anything between $7 billion and $28 billion by 2000. This is the view of Technology Catalysts International in a recent report on the sector.

The analysts note that the first marketable product is not expected before late 1997 or early 1998, and forecast that the major revenues for the sector will come from treatments for AIDS, colorectal cancer, melanoma and cystic fibrosis. The wide spread in estimated revenues is because actual per patient costs for successful treatments remain to be determined, any forecast of patient numbers is speculative and funding for treatment remains an uncertainty.

TC suggests that the greatest growth in revenues from gene therapy will take place between 2000 and 2010. Treatment for HIV infection (see table) represents the major sales prospect, followed by multiple sclerosis and hypercholesterolemia. On a conservative estimate, TC claims there is a "significant market potential" of $7 billion by 2000 and almost $50 billion by 2010.

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