Generics have failed to live up to their early 1990s reputation as anEldorado, says the French economic research body Eurostaf, and by 2000 they will retain only a marginal role, accounting for 11% of the total market.
However, in Germany their penetration will grow from 31% by value in 1996 to 40% by 2000, and in the UK from 15% to 24%. US progress will be relatively weak, from 13% to 16%, but in Canada growth will be from 15% to 17%. In France it will be from 3% to 5% by 2000. After expanding into generics during 1993-95, says Eurostaf's Pascal Reybard, the majors are now adopting minimalist strategies, or purely "opportunist ones, as in France."
Meantime, independent generics firms are seeking solutions to ensure their future. 1992-95 was marked by rapid growth, but only Mylan of the USA generated positive cashflow. IVAX, Faulding of Australia and Duramed of the USA launched restructuring programs in 1996, but Eurostaf thinks concentration is unlikely, despite Teva's takeover of Biocraft of the USA.
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