Italian Growth "Slower Than Rest Of Europe"

The Italian pharmaceutical market will show an average compound annualgrowth rate of 4.7% over the next five years, reaching a value of 19,719 billion lire ($12.38 billion) by 2001, according to a new study by IMS Pharma Strategy Group, entitled Italy: Point Of No Return?

Cardiovasculars are Italy's leading therapeutic group, the report points out; their market share is expected to rise from 21.2% to 22% by 2001, a CAGR of 5.2%. The second largest category by sales is alimentary tract and metabolism, with 16.6% market share, but this is forecast to fall to 15.1% by 2001, with a CAGR of 2.5%. Highest growth is forecast for central nervous system products, with a CAGR of 6.2%, while in the hospital sector the highest growth is expected for systemic hormones, up 11.1% a year.

Generics are key to the market's development, says IMS, but Italy is a latecomer to this sector and has no abbreviated regulatory procedure for their registration, helping to keep their market share under 1%. The sector will grow, boosted by harmonization with European Union norms and increasing cost containment moves, but only fairly modestly until the turn of the century unless further incentives are introduced in addition to the 1996 legislation placing them on the reimbursement list.