JAPAN - FUTURE TRENDS AND RESPONSES by P Reed Maurer

The future of japan's health care market cannot be forecast with certainty. However, because change in Japan is rarely revolutionary, and tends to evolve in step-wise, incremental fashion, a reasonable forecast of the future may be objectively based on current trends. In turn, these trends suggest specific corporate strategic initiatives to establish competitive positions in Japan's pharmaceutical market.

In this article, trends are identified in three areas, ie overall market growth, R&D and marketing/distribution. Corporate responses are then recommended. it concludes with a brief look at "non issues," or those factors which are not strategically relevant.

Market Growth Trends Rapid growth of disposable income is driving the demand for quality health care. The Japanese media, politicians and commentators (including US trade representatives) constantly debate quality of life issues. the debate is not about equality or entitlement - that was achieved 30 years ago and is firmly entrenched in the health care system. The quality debate relates to information. patients want to know why they are sick and what is being done to make them better. Doctors need quality information on the risks and benefits of therapy they prescribe, insurers (payers) need information on the costs and benefits of alternative treatment regimens.