Paced by antiemetics, and constrained in revenue terms by the rapid growth of generics, US sales of prescription gastrointestinal drugs will grow from $5.1 billion in 1993 to $6.1 billion by the year 2000, given the present 3% annual compound rate of growth, projects a new study from Frost & Sullivan, entitled US Prescription Gastrointestinal Pharmaceutical Markets.
Antiemetics, primarily to ease nausea and vomiting caused by cancer chemotherapy and inflammatory bowel disease, will increase their share of market revenues from 13% in 1993 to 25% by 2000 (presumably fuelled by the new 5-HT3-antagonist drugs such as Glaxo's ondansetron: Ed), as dominant ulcer drugs dip from a market share of 83% to 71%.
The generic share of total drug sales will rise from 4% in 1993 to 16% by 2000, the study forecasts, and the growing share of generics, which sell for less than brand-name drugs, will constrain revenue growth. However, while revenue growth will be flat, the study predicts that total prescription volumes will rise substantially, with much of that growth going to generics. With loss of share to generics and downward price pressures, brand-name drug sales will barely grow at all in revenue terms, moving from $5 billion in 1993 to $5.09 billion in 2000 at a 0.6% compound annual growth rate.
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