Teva Tempers Copaxone Profits Expectations

Following the US Food and Drug Administration's approvable letter for Copaxone (copolymer-1; Marketletter October 14) for the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, Teva Pharmaceutical's chief financial officer, Dan Suesskind, has tried to cool down some analysts' rather exuberant profit projections for 1997 (ranging from $100 to $180 million in that year).

Some analysts have drawn attention to Biogen's early success with Avonex (interferon beta-1a). Its third-quarter results (with Avonex sales of $27.5 million) indicated that in the first full year sales of over $100 million are likely to be achieved, and all eyes are now on Avonex' fourth-quarter sales, with both patients and their doctors becoming aware of Copaxone's approval and market entry.

Copaxone is considered to have a better tolerability profile than Avonex. However, because Avonex may have greater efficacy than its competitors, analysts expect it to take the lead in the USA's MS market in the near term. Avonex has been approved by the FDA as being effective for both reducing the frequency of MS attacks and slowing down disease progression. Both Teva's management and the investment community will have noted that Biogen had greater-than-expected losses in the quarter Avonex was introduced, due to drug launch costs.