THE USA GENERICS INDUSTRY IN THE 1990S

By the year 2000, nearly 75% of all oral prescriptions dispensed in the USA will be generic, says a new report from Decision Resources, entitled Changing the Rules of the Game: The US Generic Drug Industry.

The author, analyst Hemant Shah, notes that during 1992-95, 60 drugs with sales over $13.5 billion will lose patent/exclusivity protection in the USA. During the second half of the 1990s, around 40 additional drugs with sales totaling over $12 milion will also lose this protection. Many of these products are high-growth, effective drugs, with annual sales of more than $250 million, he says.

The growing influence of managed care and the availability of generic versions of some of the most popular brands will sharply increase both generic and therapeutic substitution, he says. By the year 2000, price differentials between generic and off-patent branded drugs will erode rapidly, and while unit volume will rise, profits will decline dramatically for both generic and research-based drug houses.