Chinese Drug Imports Slowdown Forecast

Imports of pharmaceuticals into China are expected to turn down in 1997,according to some specialist drug industry observers in the country's capital, Beijing. Imports over the past 20 years have tended to fluctuate, but apart from the years 1989 - when imports fell 13.2% to $311.3 million, and 1993 - when they dropped by 3.3% to $553.8 million, according to the State Pharmaceutical Administration, imports have posted strong growth.

Imports rose 53.7% on SPA figures to $1.1 billion in 1995, and went up 64.5% to $598.7 million in the first half of 1996. However, local observers say forthcoming health care reforms and changing government policy on foreign investment are likely to lead to a weakening of imports this year, but also to improvements in the domestic manufacturers' sales.

The impact of Hong Kong's return to China is a further factor in pharmaceutical trade, though there is considerable uncertainty on the possible positive and negative impacts of the handover. An undersupply of drugs and shifting prices have also been reported over the past 18 months.