How stable is the German pharma market, in wake of govt economy moves

The German pharmaceutical sector has generated a range of reports and forecasts so far this year that leave a margin of uncertainty as to the state of the market in the wake of government economy measures since early 2004. The drug industry association, the BPI, believes that medicine price growth has now slowed and that costs will remain stable in the longer term - a trend seen as beneficial for the pharmaceutical market.

However, the local funds' federation institute, the WIdO, noted earlier that the year 2005 figures had confirmed its forecast of record health fund spending and that final figures for 2005 would show a public-sector health fund market segment worth around 23.0 billion-24.6 billion euros ($27.8-$29.7 billion). Medical prescriptions are seen to have risen by a little above 3% in 2005 to about 650 million packs, but this was significantly lower than the 800-plus million registered in 2003.

The picture in the various segments of the reimbursable market is also varied, and a number of studies calculate a 2%-2.1% downturn last year in the volume of non-prescription pharmacy-only drugs. And, while the prescription drug segment has reported an increase of around 4% in drugs dispensed, volume was down, with some analysts showing a fall of 37-38 million packs compared with the record year 2003.