Lipitor To Drive Outperformance At W-L?

Even before its official launch, Warner-Lambert's lipid-lowering agentLipitor (atorvastatin) had captured 3.3% of all new prescriptions written for all five HMG CoA reductase inhibitors in the USA (ie Merck & Co's Zocor [simvastatin] and Mevacor [lovastatin], Bristol-Myers Squibb's Pravachol [pravastatin], Novartis' Lescol [fluvastatin] and Lipitor), according to Hemant Shah of HKS & Co.

He noted that the figure is even more stunning since neither W-L nor its co-marketing partner Pfizer had been detailing the drug. Neither has there been any direct-to-consumer advertising for Lipitor. Just after its official launch, its market share was 5.3% of new prescriptions in the sector.

If the current trend continues, shares in W-L and Pfizer are likely to sharply outperform the drug group, Mr Shah believes, while Merck & Co and B-MS' shares would dramatically underperform the group. At the time of writing, Merck had lost 2.2% of the market, B-MS had lost 1.2% and Novartis had maintained its share. Lescol should be able to retain its stake in the market because of its substantially discounted price relative to other drugs, he noted. Based on Pfizer's past performance in the cardiovascular market, and the substantially higher level of cholesterol-reducing efficacy of Lipitor, Mr Shah is now projecting that by the middle of next year Lipitor will capture 15%-20% of the US HMG CoA reductase inhibitor market and will be only slightly behind the market leader, Zocor.