Morgan Stanley Concerned Over Cortecs

Morgan Stanley has issued a report highlighting concerns it has over UKbiotechnology firm Cortecs' recent announcements on positive data in trials of Macritonin (oral salmon calcitonin) and the oral vaccine Pseudostat (Marketletter August 18).

While they believe that Macritonin will be approved, they add that "despite Cortecs' assertions to the contrary, the scientific data and the relevant experts we have spoken to suggest that calcitonin is by far the least potent of currently-available osteoporosis agents."

Furthermore, they add, the market for calcitonin is set to shrink. Cortecs is not planning US clinical trials until the fourth quarter of this year, meaning that by the time Macritonin is launched in the USA "more modern and effective treatments will probably be well entrenched in the market." The analysts estimate risk-adjusted sales of Macritonin of L44 million ($70.67 million) in 2002.