All Change For Top Drugs In Year 2000: Lehman Bros

Current leading drugs will lose their position to others over the next few years, and Glaxo Wellcome, which now has the number one blockbuster Zantac (ranitidine; with 1994 sales of $3.65 billion) will have no products in the top five in the year 2000, according to Lehman Brothers' new Pharma Pipelines.

Analysts at Lehman note that although Zantac will remain number 1 in 1995 with sales of over $3 billion, 1994 was its peak year. The remaining four of the top five drugs in 1994 - Bayer/Pfizer's Procardia (nifedipine), Astra/Merck's Losec/Prilosec (omeprazole), Amgen/Lilly's Epogen/Eprex (epoetin alfa) and Merck/Banyu's Vasotec (enalapril), all with sales in excess of $2 billion - grew in 1994, but not as quickly as Losec, which saw worldwide sales accelerate 36% to $2.23 billion.

Losec will be number one drug in 1995, the analysts predict, with turnover approaching $3 billion, and will retain that position to 2000, when sales are forecast to reach $4 billion. This then will be followed by erythropoetin products with $3.5 billion turnover, Lilly's antidepressant Prozac (fluoxetine) with sales of $3 billion, Merck's cholesterol-lowerer Zocor/Lipovas (simvastatin) at $2.5 billion, and Pfizer's heart drug Norvasc/Istin (amlodipine) bringing in $2 billion in revenues. Zantac, on the other hand, will have sales of only $700 million by 2000, the analysts believe.