Novartis Unveils Strong Product Pipeline

At an upbeat meeting for analysts last month, Novartis gave an"impressive" R&D presentation, according to Credit Suisse First Boston analysts, reporting on products nearing market, and demonstrating a promising pipeline, especially in the area of oncology, now its most important therapeutic area.

Novartis also stressed at the meeting that it intends to launch five new products in 1998, two in 1999 and 12 in 2000; of the 75 drugs currently in development, 37 are at the Phase III or registration stage.

Its novel antihypertensive Diovan (valsartan) has now been introduced in 20 countries, including the USA where it has taken an 18% market share of the compound class since its launch about three months ago. While Novartis is highly optimistic about the prospects for this drug, and is predicting fifth-year sales of 1 billion Swiss francs ($684.2 million), analysts are more conservative, with Genghis Lloyd-Harris and Vikram Sahu at CSFB estimating an 800 million francs potential for the product in its fifth year, and John Murphy and Mark Tracey of Goldman Sachs predicting sales of 750 million francs by the year 2001. Diovan is also in Phase IIb trials in congestive heart failure and renal insufficiency.