2005 US CHF Market: 27% Angiotensin II Antagonists

In the USA, by 2005 the total market for congestive heart failuretherapy is forecast to reach 1.7 billion treatment days, worth approximately $825 million at 1996 prices, according to IMS Strategy Group's ZARUS flexible forecasting system. A breakdown by disease severity reveals that 53% of treatment days will be for patients with a "mild" condition, and 21% for patients classified as "severe."

In the IMS forecasts, it is assumed that the angiotensin II antagonists will enter the CHF market three years after entry for hypertension, with Merck & Co's Cozaar (losartan) the first product to be launched for this indication in 1998.

Under this scenario, the IMS study forecasts that angiotensin II antagonists will have gained 27% of the CHF market in revenue terms and 13% in treatment days by 2005. This will have largely been captured from the first-generation ACE inhibitors, which are expected to decrease from 74% in 1995 to 39% in value, and from 31% in 1995 to 27% in treatment days by 2005.