CHINA - A BOOMING PHARMA MARKET?

The People's Republic of China is a vibrant country, resolute in becoming a major economic power in less than the lifespan of a man, comments a new report from IMS affiliate RCI. It has an estimated population of almost 1.2 billion and comprises around 22% of the world population, with a 1992 Gross Domestic Product of 2,394 billion yuan ($434 billion at the official exchange rate).

The size of the Chinese pharmaceutical market in 1992, excluding bulk drugs and traditional Chinese medicines, was 19.3 billion yuan ($3.5 billion at the official dollar rate), says RCI, adding that this reflects overall growth of 92% (and 30%) respectively compared to five years ago. Continued growth in local currency is forecast over the next five years, with sales more than doubling by 1997.

At the same time, US dollar growth is forecast to be higher than it has been in the last five years, but still lower than the yuan rate, in anticipation of a continuing decline in the yuan value against the dollar, bottoming out at around $1=8.6 yuan by 1997. RCI considers its forecast to be on the conservative side, with significantly more upside potential than downside risk.