HIV POPULATIONS "ARE STABILIZING"

17 February 1992

By 2005, the world market for anti-HIV compounds, excluding treatments for opportunistic infections, will have reached a level of $725 million, up from $290 million in 1990, says a new study, Human Immunodeficiency Virus, from the Arthur D Little affiliate company, Decision Resources.

HIV infection will remain "an enormous world health problem for at least the next decade," says the study's principal author, Henry Pfeifer, but he believes that the HIV epidemic has stabilized in the USA and will do so relatively soon in France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Japan, and that prevalence of infection will decline over the next 15 years. 71% of the 1.4 million or so people in these countries who are now infected with the virus live in the USA, he says, while the number of sufferers in Japan is "negligible."

Neither a vaccine nor a cure is likely to be found within the next 15 years, he says, although vaccines that boost immune response in the presence of disease may show more promise. Immunology will become a more important specialty in the next wave of research into HIV and AIDS, he says, as the role of autoimmune factors in the disease becomes a crucial target of investigation.

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