SANDIMMUN SET FOR DECLINE, SAYS ANALYST

Sales of Swiss pharmaceutical major Sandoz' immunosuppressant drug Sandimmun (ciclosporin) are likely to decline dramatically from their current level of over $1 billion a year, with the start of the decline becoming apparent in 1994, according to analyst Hemant Shah of HKS & Co.

The decline will come about as a result of several competitive pressures, said Mr Shah, adding that he does not hold with views expressed by other analysts that the immunosuppressant sector is poised for explosive growth. The latest entrant into the sector is Fujisawa's Prograf (tacrolimus), which was recently introduced onto the market in the USA at a cost of $12,000 in its first year of use and $7,000 as a maintenance therapy thereafter, a price which is somewhat higher than the market leader, Sandimmun.

Because US Food and Drug Administration-approved labeling does not make reference to the supposed safety advantages of Prograf (claimed by Fujisawa on the strength of data from one clinical trial), it will not be able to make reference to this in promotional materials for the drug. Nevertheless, tacrolimus is likely to achieve more than $100 million in total US revenues in its first 12 months on the market, said Mr Shah, but its long-term future will depend greatly on how well Fujisawa can differentiate the two drugs to clinicians.