German management consultancy Roland Berger is forecasting a virtual doubling in the world generics market from around $14 million in 1994 to over $30 million by the year 2000. The forecast is based on a number of international sources pointing to generics growth in this period of 14% annually, compared with 6% for the drug market as a whole.
Generics are expected to increase their share of the market from 12.3% in 1994 to an average of 20.5% in 2000, with the US market alone expanding from $3.5 billion to $13 billion in value.
Berger says the trend is due to continuing downward pressure on costs in national health services. Growth is expected in well-established markets such as the USA, UK and Germany, but also in France, Sweden and Japan, where generics currently occupy a relatively minor role.
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